Estimating the Windows 8 Availability Date

The Windows team aims to release new versions of Windows on a two- to three-year cycle, according to Steven Sinofsky, president of the Windows and Windows Live Division, and the Windows 8 cycle is more likely to be three years than two.

Whether a release takes two years or three years depends on the number of changes to the OS, with a minor release taking approximately two years and a major release, especially one where significant changes are made to the architecture of Windows, taking three or more years.

Windows Vista, a major update, was released to manufacturing on Nov. 8, 2006, and was generally available on Jan. 25, 2007. Windows 7, which was a comparatively minor update to Windows Vista, was released to manufacturing on Aug. 6, 2009, and was generally available on Oct. 22, 2009—33 months after the general availability date of Windows Vista.

Sinofsky attempted to downplay the number of changes being made in Windows 8 by saying the team was “reimagining” Windows, but Windows 8 promises to be a major update. In particular, building the new “tailored” user interface, defining a new programming model for that user interface, porting the OS to system on a chip architectures such as the ARM architecture, and optimizing power management and touch capabilities for tablets constitute major architectural changes to the Windows OS.